INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN SOCIAL SCIENCE (IJRISS)  
ISSN No. 2454-6186 | DOI: 10.47772/IJRISS | Volume IX Issue XII December 2025  
Public Social Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria: The  
Moderating Role of Institutional Quality  
Chukwu Emmanuel David, Gideon Essla Abimiku, Eburuche John Decency Chibuike, Akalado Miracle  
Chinonso  
Federal College of Education (Technical) Umunze, Nigeria  
DOI: https://doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2025.91200085  
Received: 21 December 2025; Accepted: 28 December 2025; Published: 01 January 2026  
ABSTRACT  
This study examines the growth effects of public social expenditure in Nigeria, emphasizing the moderating  
role of institutional quality. Using annual data from 2000–2023 from the World Development Indicators,  
Worldwide Governance Indicators, African Development Index, Humanitarian Data Exchange, and  
Macrotrends, the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and an Error Correction  
Model (ECM). Results confirm a stable long-run relationship among economic growth, social expenditure,  
human capital, institutional quality, infrastructure, and trade openness. In the short run, education expenditure  
negatively affects growth, reflecting adjustment lags, fiscal pressures, and weak labour-market absorption,  
while health expenditure boosts immediate productivity. Human capital development and institutional quality  
also enhance short-run growth. Interaction effects reveal that institutional quality amplifies the efficiency of  
education spending but dampens the impact of health expenditure, indicating sector-specific coordination  
challenges. Infrastructure negatively affects short-run growth, whereas trade openness provides a strong  
positive effect. In the long run, education expenditure and human capital significantly promote growth,  
supporting the human capital–led growth hypothesis, while health expenditure is insignificant. Institutional  
quality shows no direct effect, but its interaction with education expenditure is negative, reflecting structural  
rigidities that constrain the economy’s absorptive capacity. Trade openness sustains long-run growth, whereas  
infrastructure inefficiencies persist. The findings underscore that the growth impact of social spending is time-  
dependent and conditioned by governance and structural transformation.  
Keywords: Public social expenditure; economic growth; institutional quality; ARDL; structural  
transformation; Nigeria.  
INTRODUCTION  
In emerging economies, sustainable economic growth increasingly depends on the efficiency with which public  
resources are mobilized, allocated, and managed. In Nigeria, public social expenditure, particularly on  
education and health occupies a central role in this discourse due to its critical contribution to human capital  
formation, labour productivity, and overall social welfare. Beyond its redistributive function, government  
spending in these sectors represents a strategic long-term investment in the economy’s productive capacity,  
essential for building a workforce capable of sustaining growth over time (Christopher et al., 2024; Kousar et  
al., 2023).  
Education and health are unique in development planning because they simultaneously influence individual  
welfare and macroeconomic outcomes. Education is widely recognized as a driver of social mobility, enabling  
individuals to overcome socioeconomic disadvantages through access to opportunities, skill acquisition,  
empowerment, and the enhancement of social and cultural capital (Mian, 2023). From a human capital  
perspective, education functions similarly to physical capital, representing an investment in the knowledge,  
competencies, and health attributes of individuals that facilitate productive economic activity (Weisbrod,  
1966). By enhancing skills, adaptability, and employability, such investment strengthens aggregate economic  
performance, highlighting why public expenditure on education and health constitutes a foundational, rather  
than discretionary, component of development policy (Schultz, 1961; Becker, 1964; Lucas, 1988).  
Page 1186  
www.rsisinternational.org  
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN SOCIAL SCIENCE (IJRISS)  
ISSN No. 2454-6186 | DOI: 10.47772/IJRISS | Volume IX Issue XII December 2025  
Endogenous growth theory further emphasizes the role of human capital in long-run growth, identifying  
knowledge accumulation, skill formation, and health improvements as critical drivers of economic expansion.  
Investments in education and health enhance productivity, expand innovative capacity, and increase labour  
efficiency, thereby reinforcing long-term growth trajectories (Becker, 2009; Sunde & Vischer, 2015). Empirical  
evidence from Nigeria supports this perspective, demonstrating that human capital investment not only  
expands output but also fosters employment creation and poverty reduction, underscoring its broader  
developmental significance (Olopade, 2020; Abasilim & Onyekwuo-Oparah, 2025).  
Despite these theoretical and empirical justifications, Nigeria’s spending patterns reveal persistent gaps  
between policy aspirations and fiscal practice. Between 2010 and 2023, as depicted in Figure 1, health  
expenditure remained narrowly constrained at 3.1–3.7% of GDP, with only temporary increases to  
approximately 4.1–4.3% in 2021–2022. Education expenditure followed a similar pattern: peaking near 9% of  
GDP between 2013 and 2015, it declined steadily to below 6% from 2017 onward, reaching roughly 4.3% in  
2022 and 4.4% in 2023— substantially below the 26% benchmark recommended by UNESCO. These trends  
indicate a structural inability or reluctance to allocate resources consistent with Nigeria’s demographic  
pressures and human capital needs.  
Figure 1: Health and  
Education Expenditure as a  
Percentage of GDP (2010–  
2023)  
10  
0
HEXP  
EDUEXP  
Source: Author’s computation from Macrotrends Global Metrics and World Development Indicators (2025)  
The consequences of underinvestment are evident in weak human development outcomes. Nigeria ranked  
167th out of 174 countries on the World Bank Human Capital Index in 2022, reflecting deficiencies in  
education quality, healthcare access, and labour productivity. Public expenditure remains low at around 12% of  
GDP, with less than one-quarter allocated to education and health combined. The resulting effects include  
widening skills gaps, continued emigration of skilled labour, and limited institutional capacity to support  
productivity growth (Popogbe & Adeosun, 2020; Akunede, Nzeribe & Ezenekwe, 2022; Awogbemi, 2023).  
Institutional quality is a key determinant of the effectiveness of social expenditure in promoting growth. Strong  
institutions—characterized by transparency, accountability, and effective governance ensure that investments  
in education and health translate into improved human capital, enhanced productivity, and inclusive outcomes  
(Le et al., 2016; Adebayo & Olanrewaju, 2024). Conversely, weak institutions, as historically observed in  
Nigeria, reduce the effectiveness of social spending. Corruption, poor regulatory enforcement, and  
mismanagement diminish returns on public expenditure, limiting the economy’s ability to benefit fully from  
investments in education and health (Olanrewaju et al., 2020; Utile et al., 2021). This underscores the  
moderating role of institutional quality in the expenditure–growth relationship.  
Empirical studies generally indicate that social spending positively influences economic growth (Sakthivel &  
Yadav, 2007; Adamu, 2003; Rubin et al., 2016). However, evidence specific to Nigeria remains inconclusive,  
often due to differences in estimation techniques, model specifications, time horizons, and data quality (Nwodo  
& Ukaegbu, 2017). Many studies aggregate expenditure without isolating education and health components,  
while others focus only on short-run effects, neglecting long-run dynamics. These limitations highlight the  
need for a focused analysis of how social expenditure impacts economic growth in the Nigerian context.  
Against this backdrop, the present study investigates the impact of government expenditure on education and  
health on economic growth in Nigeria, while explicitly examining the moderating role of institutional quality.  
Page 1187  
www.rsisinternational.org  
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN SOCIAL SCIENCE (IJRISS)  
ISSN No. 2454-6186 | DOI: 10.47772/IJRISS | Volume IX Issue XII December 2025  
By analyzing both short-run and long-run effects, the study provides evidence to inform policy decisions aimed  
at optimizing public investment for sustainable growth.  
To guide the empirical analysis, the following null hypotheses are tested:  
•
•
H₀₁: Government expenditure on education has no significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria.  
H₀₂: Government expenditure on health has no significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria.  
•
H₀₃a: Institutional quality does not significantly moderate the impact of government expenditure on  
education on economic growth in Nigeria.  
• H₀₃b: Institutional quality does not significantly moderate the impact of government expenditure on  
health on economic growth in Nigeria.  
LITERATURE REVIEW  
Conceptual Review  
Economic Growth  
Economic growth reflects a sustained expansion in an economy’s productive capacity and its ability to generate  
goods and services over time. It is commonly assessed through persistent increases in real gross domestic  
product per capita, which capture improvements in average income and economic efficiency (Todaro & Smith,  
2015). Growth outcomes are shaped by a complex interaction of demographic trends, capital accumulation,  
technological advancement, institutional arrangements, and the effectiveness with which available resources  
are mobilized (Barro & Sala-i-Martin, 2004). Over extended periods, even marginal differences in growth rates  
can compound into substantial disparities in income levels and welfare outcomes across countries (Haller,  
2012).  
Although closely related, economic growth and economic development are not synonymous. Growth primarily  
denotes quantitative expansion in output, whereas development encompasses qualitative improvements in  
living standards, structural transformation, and social well-being (Jhingan, 2011). For developing economies  
such as Nigeria, sustained economic growth remains indispensable, as it provides the fiscal capacity required  
for redistribution, infrastructure provision, and human capital investment. Consequently, public policy choices,  
particularly those relating to government expenditure priorities and institutional effectiveness, play a central  
role in shaping long-term growth trajectories.  
Government Expenditure on Education  
Government expenditure on education consists of public financial allocations directed toward the provision,  
expansion, and enhancement of educational services. Such spending seeks to improve access, raise quality, and  
strengthen the institutional foundations of the education system (UNESCO, 2020). In practice, education  
expenditure is typically divided into capital and recurrent components. Capital spending covers investments in  
physical infrastructure, equipment, and educational technology, while recurrent expenditure finances the  
ongoing operational costs of the sector, including staff remuneration, instructional materials, and  
administrative services (Okoro, 2013).  
These two components are complementary rather than substitutive. Capital investment without adequate  
recurrent funding often results in underutilized facilities, while recurrent expenditure in the absence of capital  
expansion constrains system growth. Through improved educational attainment and skill acquisition, public  
education spending enhances labour productivity and supports sustained economic growth. As such, education  
expenditure constitutes a strategic investment in human capital rather than a purely social or redistributive  
intervention (OECD, 2019).  
Government Expenditure on Health  
Government expenditure on health refers to public spending aimed at financing preventive and curative  
healthcare services, public health programmes, health infrastructure, and system administration (World Health  
Page 1188  
www.rsisinternational.org  
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN SOCIAL SCIENCE (IJRISS)  
ISSN No. 2454-6186 | DOI: 10.47772/IJRISS | Volume IX Issue XII December 2025  
Organization, 2019). These resources support hospitals, primary healthcare centres, medical supplies,  
workforce training, and regulatory oversight. In many developing economies, where access to private  
healthcare remains limited, public health expenditure plays a critical role in ensuring basic health outcomes  
and reducing vulnerability.  
Health investment contributes to economic performance by lowering disease burden, extending working life  
expectancy, and reducing productivity losses associated with illness and absenteeism (Bloom & Canning,  
2000). Beyond its direct effects, improved population health reinforces human capital accumulation by  
enabling individuals to participate more effectively in education, training, and productive employment. In this  
way, health expenditure complements education spending in shaping the overall quality and efficiency of the  
labour force.  
Public Expenditure, Human Capital, and Economic Growth  
Public expenditure on education and health represents one of the principal channels through which  
governments influence human capital development and long-term economic growth. Education enhances  
cognitive capacity, adaptability, and technical competence, enabling workers to respond more effectively to  
technological change and labour market demands (Becker, 1993). Similarly, improved health outcomes raise  
productive capacity by reducing morbidity and strengthening both physical and cognitive functioning  
(Grossman, 1972).  
In many developing economies, private investment in human capital is constrained by income inequality, credit  
market imperfections, and information asymmetries. Under such conditions, public expenditure plays a  
compensatory role by broadening access to essential services (Barro, 1991). Comparative evidence suggests  
that educational attainment and health status are closely linked to growth performance, even after controlling  
for other structural determinants. However, the contribution of social expenditure to growth is not automatic.  
Inefficiencies in service delivery, inequitable access, and weak governance structures can substantially dilute  
expected outcomes, limiting the impact of public spending on human capital accumulation and economic  
performance (Kruk et al., 2018).  
Institutional Quality and Economic Growth  
Institutional quality refers to the effectiveness of the legal, political, and administrative frameworks that shape  
economic and social interactions. It encompasses dimensions such as government effectiveness, regulatory  
quality, rule of law, accountability, and control of corruption (Kaufmann et al., 2010). By shaping incentives  
and reducing uncertainty, institutions influence investment decisions, productivity outcomes, and the allocation  
of resources across sectors.  
A growing body of theoretical and empirical literature recognizes institutions as fundamental determinants of  
sustained economic performance. North (1990) characterizes institutions as the rules of the game that structure  
economic behaviour and transaction costs. Empirical studies further demonstrate that economies with stronger  
institutional frameworks tend to experience higher rates of capital accumulation, faster technological diffusion,  
and more inclusive growth patterns (Acemoglu et al., 2005). From a governance perspective, Rodrik (2000)  
emphasizes that policy effectiveness depends not only on policy content but also on institutional capacity for  
coordination, enforcement, and credibility.  
Institutional Quality, Public Social Expenditure, and Economic Growth  
Institutional quality plays a critical moderating role in determining whether public social expenditure translates  
into improved human capital and economic growth. Government spending on education and health is more  
likely to be effective within institutional environments characterized by transparency, accountability, and  
administrative capacity (Gupta et al., 2001). Strong institutions enhance the efficiency of public resource use  
by reducing leakages, curbing corruption, and strengthening planning, monitoring, and service delivery  
systems, thereby improving educational and health outcomes and labour productivity (World Bank, 2017).  
In contrast, weak institutions can substantially diminish the returns to public spending. Poor governance, rent  
seeking behaviour, and weak regulatory enforcement often undermine the effectiveness of education and health  
Page 1189  
www.rsisinternational.org  
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN SOCIAL SCIENCE (IJRISS)  
ISSN No. 2454-6186 | DOI: 10.47772/IJRISS | Volume IX Issue XII December 2025  
expenditure (Mauro, 1998). Empirical evidence shows that corruption and institutional inefficiency lower the  
marginal productivity of social spending, leading to divergent growth outcomes even at similar expenditure  
levels (Rajkumar & Swaroop, 2008).  
Conceptually, the growth effects of public social expenditure are neither automatic nor linear but depend  
critically on institutional quality. This perspective is consistent with endogenous growth theory, which  
emphasizes the interaction between policy choices, institutions, and human capital in shaping long-run  
economic growth (Aghion & Howitt, 2009).  
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK  
This study is grounded in Endogenous Growth Theory, which departs from the neoclassical assumption of  
diminishing returns by emphasizing the role of human capital, innovation, and knowledge accumulation as  
internal drivers of long-term growth (Romer, 1990; Lucas, 1988). In its general form, output is expressed as:  
Yit = F (Kit, Lit, At)  
(2.1)  
where K represents physical capital, L labour, and At the stock of knowledge or technology. Unlike exogenous  
growth models, At evolves endogenously through investment in education, health, and research.  
Romer’s framework highlights the role of investment and innovation in expanding technological capacity,  
while Lucas emphasizes human capital accumulation, particularly through education as the key mechanism  
sustaining growth. This relationship can be summarized as:  
λ = a+b (Δk/y)  
(2.2)  
where λ denotes the growth rate, a captures exogenous influences, and b reflects the responsiveness of growth  
to investment, proxied by the capital–output ratio (Δk/y). The implication is that higher and sustained  
investment rates can generate persistent growth effects.  
Within this theoretical context, public expenditure on education and health enhances the stock of human  
capital, raises productivity, and supports innovation. These expenditures therefore function as endogenous  
inputs into the growth process, justifying their inclusion as key explanatory variables in empirical growth  
analysis.  
Empirical Literature Review  
Empirical studies examining the relationship between public social expenditure, institutional quality, and  
economic growth provide substantial but mixed evidence, reflecting differences in country contexts,  
expenditure composition, econometric techniques, and governance structures. Rather than presenting these  
studies sequentially, the literature is more coherently understood when organized around key thematic concerns  
that dominate both theoretical and empirical debates.  
Education Expenditure and Economic Growth  
Within the Nigerian literature, several studies provide evidence in support of the human capital–led growth  
hypothesis, particularly with respect to education expenditure. Okerekeoti (2022), employing annual data from  
1999 to 2020, found that government expenditure on education has a positive and statistically significant effect  
on real GDP, indicating that sustained investment in education enhances productivity, income growth, and  
overall welfare. This result is consistent with endogenous growth theory, which assigns a central role to  
education in improving labor efficiency and innovation capacity.  
However, more recent evidence indicates that the growth effects of education spending depend on both its  
composition and the time horizon considered. Christopher et al. (2025) showed that capital education  
expenditure exerts a negative influence in the short run but becomes growth-enhancing in the long run,  
reflecting the gestation lags associated with educational infrastructure investment. By contrast, recurrent  
education expenditure was found to stimulate economic growth in both the short and long run, underscoring  
Page 1190  
www.rsisinternational.org  
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN SOCIAL SCIENCE (IJRISS)  
ISSN No. 2454-6186 | DOI: 10.47772/IJRISS | Volume IX Issue XII December 2025  
the importance of operational spending on teachers, instructional materials, and academic services in  
sustaining human capital accumulation.  
Health Expenditure and Economic Growth  
Empirical findings on the health expenditure–growth nexus in Nigeria are comparatively more nuanced.  
Olayiwola et al. (2021), re-examining Wagner’s hypothesis using time-series techniques, established a long-run  
equilibrium relationship between public health expenditure and economic growth. However, Granger causality  
tests revealed no direct causal link from health spending to GDP. Notably, health expenditure as a share of total  
government spending exhibited a unidirectional causal relationship with economic growth, suggesting that  
fiscal prioritization, rather than absolute spending levels, plays a critical role in determining growth outcomes.  
Similarly, Ideh (2022), applying OLS, cointegration, and ARDL techniques to data spanning 1980–2019, found  
that capital health expenditure exerts a positive and statistically significant long-run effect on economic  
development, while recurrent health expenditure has a negative but insignificant impact. Ozor et al. (2025)  
extended this analysis using ARDL and Toda–Yamamoto causality tests over the period 1981–2024 and  
reported that healthcare capital expenditure positively influences economic growth in both the short and long  
run, whereas recurrent health expenditure exerts a contractionary effect. These outcomes were attributed to  
inefficiencies, leakages, and weak accountability in recurrent health spending, leading the authors to advocate  
increased investment in health infrastructure alongside improved governance and public–private partnerships.  
Capital versus Recurrent Social Expenditure  
Beyond sectoral distinctions, an important empirical theme concerns the differential growth effects of capital  
and recurrent components of social expenditure. Christopher et al. (2025) provided robust evidence that while  
capital health expenditure consistently promotes economic growth, recurrent health expenditure tends to  
impede it, possibly due to inefficiencies and crowding-out effects. Udo et al. (2023), using ARDL and Granger  
causality techniques for Nigeria over the period 1980–2020, similarly found a bidirectional causal relationship  
between government expenditure and economic development, alongside evidence of long-run equilibrium.  
Their findings reinforce the argument that not only the volume but also the composition and efficiency of  
public spending are critical for achieving sustainable development outcomes.  
At the sub-national level, Verazulianti et al. (2021), employing the Generalized Method of Moments on  
Indonesian provincial data, found that improvements in health and education outcomes are significant drivers  
of economic growth. However, foreign direct investment, domestic investment, and public infrastructure  
expenditure did not significantly support growth at the provincial level. The authors argued that for public  
spending to translate into growth, it must prioritize the quality and equitable distribution of health and  
educational services rather than merely expanding expenditure levels.  
Institutional Quality and the Effectiveness of Social Spending  
A growing strand of the literature emphasizes that the growth impact of public social expenditure is critically  
conditioned by institutional quality. Rajkumar and Swaroop (2008) provided seminal cross-country evidence  
demonstrating that public spending on education and health significantly improves human development  
outcomes only in countries with strong governance structures, low corruption, and effective bureaucracies. In  
weakly governed economies, increased public spending yielded little or no improvement in social outcomes. In  
the Nigerian context, this divergence may plausibly reflect persistent structural inefficiencies in public  
financial management, weak monitoring mechanisms, and governance constraints that dilute the productivity  
of social expenditure.  
Supporting this institutional perspective, Sarwar and Tingqiu (2019), using panel data from 161 countries  
within a Solow growth framework, found that education and health variables exerted statistically insignificant  
effects on economic growth, while capital investment significantly stimulated economic activity, albeit with  
adverse environmental consequences. Their results further showed that higher educational attainment and  
capital accumulation help mitigate health challenges, whereas rising carbon emissions exacerbate them. These  
findings suggest that without strong institutions and complementary policies, the growth-enhancing effects of  
social spending may remain muted.  
Page 1191  
www.rsisinternational.org  
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN SOCIAL SCIENCE (IJRISS)  
ISSN No. 2454-6186 | DOI: 10.47772/IJRISS | Volume IX Issue XII December 2025  
Taken together, the empirical literature suggests that public expenditure on education and health can promote  
economic growth, particularly when spending is capital-oriented, efficiently managed, and supported by strong  
institutional frameworks. Nevertheless, the evidence remains mixed regarding the short-run versus long-run  
effects of social expenditure and the effectiveness of recurrent spending. Moreover, many Nigeria-specific  
studies examine education and health expenditure in isolation, without explicitly modeling institutional quality  
as a moderating factor within a unified empirical framework. This gap motivates the present study, which  
jointly examines public social expenditure and institutional quality in explaining Nigeria’s economic growth  
dynamics.  
METHODOLOGY  
Model Specification  
The empirical strategy is anchored on estimating the links between government social- sector spending, human  
capital formation, and output performance in Nigeria. Real GDP growth (RGDP) is employed as the measure  
of economic growth, while human capital development index (HCDI), government expenditure on education  
(EDUEXP), and government expenditure on health (HEXP) serve as the core explanatory variables. A baseline  
linear specification is expressed as:  
푅퐺퐷푃퐺 = 훽0 + 훽1퐸퐷푈퐸푋푃 + 훽2퐻퐸푋푃 + 훽3퐼푁푆푇푄퐼 + 훽4퐻퐶퐷퐼 + 훽5퐴퐼퐷퐼 + 훽6푇푂푃 + 훽7(퐼푁푆푇푄퐼 ∗  
퐸퐷푈퐸푋푃) + 훽8(퐼푁푆푇푄퐼 ∗ 퐻퐸푋푃) + 휇 ----------------- 3.1  
Where:  
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
RGDPG represents real GDP growth rate  
EDUEXP is government expenditure on education  
HEXP represents government expenditure on health  
INSTQI denotes institutional quality index  
HCDI represents human capital development index  
AIDI denotes Aggregate infrastructural development index  
TOP is trade openness  
INSTQ*EDUEXP, INSTQI*HEXP are the interaction terms  
μt is stochastic disturbance term  
Given that the variables exhibit mixed orders of integration and may be jointly determined, a single-equation  
time-series approach capable of accommodating both I(0) and I(1) processes is required. The Autoregressive  
Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework proposed by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (1996, 2001) is suitable for three  
reasons commonly emphasized in high-impact empirical literature. Earlier studies on fiscal expenditure and  
growth—e.g., Owusu (2012) and Orji (2014) have applied ARDL in comparable macro-financial settings,  
further supporting its relevance.  
The unrestricted error-correction representation of Equation (3.1) is formulated as:  
푝
푝
푝
푝
푅퐺퐷푃퐺푡 = 훼0 + ∑ 훹1 ∆푅퐺퐷푃푡−푖 + ∑ 훹2 ∆퐸퐷푈퐸푋푃푡−푖 + ∑ 훹3 ∆퐻퐸푋푃푡−푖 + ∑ 훹4 ∆퐼푁푆푇푄퐼푡−푖  
푖=1  
푖=1  
푖=1  
푖=1  
푝
푝
푝
푝
+ ∑ 훹5 ∆퐻퐶퐷퐼푡−푖 + ∑ 훹6 ∆퐴퐼퐷퐼푡−푖 + ∑ 훹7 ∆푇푂푃푡−푖 + ∑ 훹8 ∆(퐼푁푆푇푄퐼 ∗ 퐸퐷푈퐸푋푃)푡−푖  
푖=1  
푖=1  
푖=1  
푖=1  
푝
Page 1192  
www.rsisinternational.org  
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN SOCIAL SCIENCE (IJRISS)  
ISSN No. 2454-6186 | DOI: 10.47772/IJRISS | Volume IX Issue XII December 2025  
+ ∑ 훹9 ∆(퐼푁푆푇푄퐼 ∗ 퐻퐸푋푃)푡−푖 + 휆1푅퐺퐷푃푡− + 휆2퐸퐷푈퐸푋푃 + 휆3퐻퐸푋푃푡− + 휆4퐼푁푆푇푄퐼푡−  
1
1
1
푖=1  
+ 휆5퐻퐶퐷퐼푡− + 휆6퐴퐼퐷퐼푡− + 휆7푇푂푃푡− + 휆8(퐼푁푆푇푄퐼 ∗ 퐸퐷푈퐸푋푃)푡−  
1
+
1
1
1
휆8(퐼푁푆푇푄퐼 ∗ 퐻퐸푋푃)푡− + 휇푡 − − − − − 3.2  
1
Where:  
•
•
•
•
Δ denotes first differences  
Coefficients attached to the differenced regressors capture short-run effects  
The λ parameters represent long-run elasticities  
α0 is the drift term  
The sign and significance of the error-correction component derived from the estimated model will indicate the  
speed at which deviations from long-run equilibrium are corrected.  
EMPIRICAL RESULTS AND DISCUSSION  
Descriptive Statistics  
Table 4.1 presents the descriptive statistics of the study variables. The average real GDP growth rate (RGDPG)  
is 3.02 per cent, indicating moderate economic growth in Nigeria, though the wide range between the  
minimum (−1.79%) and maximum (8.01%) values, along with a high standard deviation (2.74), reflects  
significant macroeconomic volatility due to oil price shocks, fiscal instability, and external sector fluctuations.  
Education expenditure (EDUEXP) has a mean of 7.13 with a low standard deviation (1.44), suggesting gradual  
and predictable changes, while health expenditure (HEXP) averages 3.42 with very low variability (0.23),  
indicating stable public health spending, possibly reflecting both fiscal discipline and limited responsiveness to  
rising needs. The Human Capital Development Index (HCDI) averages 1.82, showing modest human capital  
improvements, but its wide range (0.89–2.30) reflects uneven progress, likely due to regional disparities and  
policy inconsistencies. Institutional quality (INSTQI) averages 1.10 with moderate variability, reflecting  
fluctuating governance and institutional performance. The Aggregate Infrastructural Development Index  
(AIDI) records a relatively high mean of 19.64 but substantial variation (SD = 3.34), indicating uneven  
infrastructure development. Trade openness (TOP) has a low mean of 0.32 and modest dispersion, highlighting  
limited integration into global trade despite periods of liberalization. Jarque–Bera statistics show that most  
variables are approximately normally distributed, except HCDI, which slightly departs from normality.  
Overall, the variables’ distributional properties support their suitability for econometric analysis.  
Table 4.1: Descriptive Statistics  
Variable  
Mean  
Median Max  
Min  
Std.  
Dev.  
Skewness Kurtosis Jarque-  
Bera  
Prob.  
Obs  
RGDPG  
3.020  
2.287  
6.650  
3.385  
1.980  
1.108  
8.006  
9.260  
4.076  
2.301  
1.840  
-1.794  
5.130  
2.985  
0.890  
0.423  
2.743  
1.442  
0.234  
0.397  
0.449  
3.342  
0.070  
0.018  
0.091  
0.372  
-0.885  
-0.068  
-0.702  
0.503  
1.785  
1.438  
3.257  
2.529  
1.773  
2.345  
2.259  
2.771  
4.638  
1.162  
6.293  
2.859  
4.499  
2.930  
0.250  
0.098  
0.559  
0.043  
0.239  
0.105  
0.231  
45  
45  
45  
45  
45  
45  
45  
EDUEXP 7.130  
HEXP  
HCDI  
INSTQI  
AIDI  
3.421  
1.822  
1.099  
19.640 20.527  
0.319 0.310  
23.731 11.960  
0.466 0.211  
TOP  
Source: Authors’ computation (2025)  
Page 1193  
www.rsisinternational.org  
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN SOCIAL SCIENCE (IJRISS)  
ISSN No. 2454-6186 | DOI: 10.47772/IJRISS | Volume IX Issue XII December 2025  
Unit Root Test Results  
The Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root test results presented in Table 4.2 indicate mixed orders of  
integration among the variables. Real GDP growth (RGDPG), education expenditure (EDUEXP), aggregate  
infrastructure (AIDI), and trade openness (TOP) are non-stationary at level but become stationary after first  
differencing, implying that they are integrated of order one, I(1). In contrast, health expenditure (HEXP),  
institutional quality (INSTQI), and human capital development index (HCDI) are stationary at level, indicating  
that they are integrated of order zero, I(0).  
The coexistence of I(0) and I(1) variables confirms that none of the series is integrated of order two, thereby  
satisfying the necessary condition for the application of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling  
framework. This mixed integration order justifies the use of the ARDL bounds testing approach to examine  
both short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships among the variables.  
Table 4.2: Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) Unit Root Test Results  
Variable  
RGDPG  
EDUEXP  
HEXP  
ADF t-stat (Level)  
-2.1588  
p-value  
0.2228  
0.6444  
0.0220  
0.0185  
0.0349  
0.8721  
0.4297  
ADF t-stat (1st Diff.)  
p-value  
0.0020  
0.0766  
–
Order  
I(1)  
I(1)  
I(0)  
I(0)  
I(0)  
I(1)  
I(1)  
-4.0381  
-2.7265  
–
-1.2528  
-3.2251  
INSTQI  
HCDI  
-3.2895  
–
–
-3.0446  
–
–
AIDI  
-0.5622  
-2.6928  
-3.2280  
0.0798  
0.0216  
TOP  
-1.6960  
Source: Authors’ computation (2025)  
ARDL Bounds Test for Cointegration  
The ARDL bounds test results reported in Table 4.3 show an F-statistic of 26.38, which far exceeds the upper  
critical bound values at the 1 per cent, 5 per cent, and 10 per cent significance levels. This provides strong  
empirical evidence of a long-run cointegrating relationship among real GDP growth, public social expenditure  
(education and health), human capital development, infrastructural development, institutional quality, and trade  
openness. The existence of cointegration implies that despite short-run fluctuations, the variables move  
together in the long run, validating the theoretical expectation that sustained economic growth is jointly  
influenced by social investment, institutional effectiveness, and structural factors.  
Table 4.3: Model’s Co-integration (ARDL Bounds Test) Result  
F-Statistic  
26.38  
Significance Level  
I(0) Lower Bound  
I(1) Upper Bound  
10%  
5%  
1.95  
2.22  
2.48  
2.79  
3.06  
3.39  
3.70  
4.10  
K = 8  
2.5%  
1%  
Source: Authors’ computation (2025)  
Page 1194  
www.rsisinternational.org  
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN SOCIAL SCIENCE (IJRISS)  
ISSN No. 2454-6186 | DOI: 10.47772/IJRISS | Volume IX Issue XII December 2025  
Short-Run Dynamics  
The short-run ARDL estimates in Table 4.4 indicate that the growth effects of public social expenditure and  
institutional quality in Nigeria are uneven and highly time-dependent. Education expenditure exhibits a  
negative and statistically significant short-run effect on economic growth, suggesting that increases in  
education spending do not translate into immediate output gains. This outcome is consistent with the long  
gestation period of education investments and reflects short-term fiscal pressures, administrative rigidities, and  
weak labour-market absorption of newly acquired skills. In an economy characterized by limited industrial  
diversification, the short run growth response to education spending is therefore likely to be muted or even  
negative, as documented for Nigeria by Christopher et al. (2025), who show that capital education expenditure  
dampens short-run growth due to delayed returns and limited absorptive capacity.  
By contrast, health expenditure shows a strong positive short-run effect on growth, indicating that  
improvements in health spending yield more immediate productivity benefits. Unlike education, health  
investments directly affect labour efficiency by reducing morbidity and work-time losses, which can translate  
quickly into higher output. This channel is well established in the development literature, where health capital  
is shown to function as a short-run productivity input rather than a purely long-term investment (Ozor et al.,  
2025; Ideh, 2022).  
Human capital development outcomes also exert a positive short-run effect, reinforcing the view that realised  
improvements in skills and health status matter more for immediate growth performance than expenditure  
levels alone. Institutional quality is positive and statistically significant in the short run, suggesting that even  
incremental improvements in governance can reduce transaction costs and enhance economic performance  
over shorter horizons, particularly in environments characterized by weak institutional capacity.  
The interaction effects provide further insight into the conditioning role of institutions. The positive interaction  
between institutional quality and education expenditure indicates that governance improvements enhance the  
short-run efficiency of education spending through better budget execution, monitoring, and service delivery,  
consistent with the public expenditure efficiency argument advanced by Rajkumar and Swaroop (2008).  
However, the negative interaction between institutional quality and health expenditure points to persistent  
coordination and accountability challenges within the health sector. This suggests that improvements in  
aggregate governance may be insufficient to overcome sector-specific inefficiencies and resource leakages that  
constrain the growth impact of health spending, a concern widely noted in the Nigerian health financing  
literature (Olayiwola et al., 2021; Ideh, 2022).  
Infrastructure development exerts a negative short-run effect on growth, reflecting transitional inefficiencies  
associated with project implementation, financing constraints, and maintenance challenges. These factors can  
delay the realization of productive benefits from infrastructure investments. In contrast, trade openness  
contributes positively and significantly to short-run growth, highlighting the role of external demand and  
access to imported inputs in supporting output expansion.  
The lagged dependent variable is positive and highly significant, indicating strong persistence in economic  
growth. This suggests that short-run shocks have sustained effects on output dynamics. Overall, the high  
explanatory power of the model and satisfactory diagnostic statistics indicate that the estimated short-run  
relationships are stable and economically meaningful.  
Table 4.4: Short-Run Dynamics from ARDL Test  
Dependent Variable: ΔRGDPG  
Variable  
ΔEDUEXP  
ΔHEXP  
Coefficient  
-2.827359  
18.44595  
5.030484  
Std. Error  
0.754368  
2.929197  
1.685464  
t-Statistic  
-3.747985  
6.297271  
2.984629  
Prob.  
0.0010  
0.0000  
0.0064  
ΔHCDI  
Page 1195  
www.rsisinternational.org  
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN SOCIAL SCIENCE (IJRISS)  
ISSN No. 2454-6186 | DOI: 10.47772/IJRISS | Volume IX Issue XII December 2025  
ΔINSTQI  
15.54146  
-0.583930  
2.583281  
-10.15047  
38.96680  
0.832649  
-3.721564  
6.624296  
0.211158  
0.640371  
1.810683  
5.720982  
0.049256  
5.154685  
2.346130  
-2.765368  
4.034038  
-5.605876  
6.811208  
16.90451  
-0.721977  
0.0276  
0.0108  
0.0005  
0.0000  
0.0000  
0.0000  
0.4773  
ΔAIDI  
Δ(INSTQI × EDUEXP)  
Δ(INSTQI × HEXP)  
ΔTOP  
RGDPG(−1)  
Constant  
Model Diagnostic Statistics  
R-squared  
0.9977  
0.9960  
2.41  
Adjusted R-squared  
Durbin–Watson Statistic  
Source: Authors’ computation (2025)  
Long-Run ARDL/ECM Results  
The long-run ARDL estimates reported in Table 4.5 show that education expenditure exerts a positive and  
statistically significant effect on economic growth, indicating that sustained investment in education promotes  
human capital accumulation and long-term productivity. This finding is consistent with Okerekeoti (2022) and  
supports the human capital–led growth hypothesis within the endogenous growth framework, complementing  
the short-run results by confirming that the growth-enhancing effects of education spending materialize  
primarily over longer horizons.  
Human capital development (HCDI) also exhibits a strong positive and significant long-run effect, reinforcing  
evidence from Verazulianti et al. (2021) that improvements in educational attainment and health outcomes—  
rather than expenditure levels alone are critical for sustained economic growth. In contrast, health expenditure  
is negative and statistically insignificant in the long run, suggesting that its growth effects are largely transitory  
or conditional on efficiency and sectoral governance, consistent with Olayiwola et al. (2021) and Ideh (2022).  
Institutional quality remains statistically insignificant in the long run when considered independently, implying  
that governance affects growth mainly through interactions with key policy variables rather than via a direct  
channel. Notably, the interaction between institutional quality and education expenditure is negative and  
statistically significant. From a structuralist development perspective, this counterintuitive result reflects  
persistent structural rigidities in Nigeria’s economy, where improvements in institutional efficiency enhance  
the delivery of education spending without a commensurate expansion of productive, labour-absorbing sectors.  
Under such conditions, improved governance may increase the efficiency of human capital formation, yet weak  
industrial diversification and limited technological upgrading constrain the economy’s capacity to productively  
absorb skilled labour, resulting in skills mismatch and educated unemployment. Consistent with classical and  
neo-structuralist arguments, human capital accumulation in the absence of complementary structural  
transformation yields limited growth dividends (Lewis, 1954; Hirschman, 1958; Rodrik, 2013). Thus, the  
negative interaction effect does not contradict the positive long-run role of education expenditure per se, but  
rather underscores that the growth effectiveness of education spending is conditional on the productive  
structure, industrial depth, and absorptive capacity of the economy.  
Aggregate infrastructural development (AIDI) exerts a negative and statistically significant long-run effect,  
reflecting inefficiencies, inadequate maintenance, and possible misallocation of capital investments, in line  
with Verazulianti et al. (2021). Trade openness remains positive and statistically significant, confirming that  
Page 1196  
www.rsisinternational.org  
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN SOCIAL SCIENCE (IJRISS)  
ISSN No. 2454-6186 | DOI: 10.47772/IJRISS | Volume IX Issue XII December 2025  
sustained global integration supports growth through technology transfer, market access, and productivity  
gains. Finally, the error-correction term is negative and statistically significant, indicating that approximately  
16.7 per cent of short-run deviations from long-run equilibrium are corrected annually, thereby confirming the  
stability of the long-run relationship.  
Table 4.5: Long-Run ARDL/ECM Coefficients  
Variable  
CointEq(-1)  
EDUEXP  
HEXP  
HCDI  
INSTQI  
AIDI  
INSTQI_EDUEXP  
INSTQI_HEXP  
TOP  
Coefficient  
-0.167  
7.365  
-8.445  
30.060  
1.877  
-3.489  
-7.505  
13.771  
51.952  
-22.238  
t-Statistic  
0.049  
2.635  
-0.891  
2.566  
0.088  
-2.517  
-2.752  
1.588  
2.461  
-0.731  
Prob  
-3.398  
0.015  
0.382  
0.017  
0.930  
0.019  
0.011  
0.125  
0.021  
0.472  
C
Source: Authors’ computation (2025)  
Robustness and Sensitivity Checks  
To reinforce confidence in the estimated results, a series of robustness and sensitivity checks were performed.  
Diagnostic tests confirm that the ARDL model is well-specified: residuals are normally distributed, and the  
Breusch–Pagan–Godfrey and Breusch–Godfrey LM tests indicate no evidence of heteroskedasticity or serial  
correlation, suggesting that the coefficients are reliable and efficiently estimated.  
The stability of the long-run relationship is further supported by the statistically significant and correctly  
signed error-correction term, indicating convergence toward equilibrium after short-run shocks. Additionally,  
the bounds test F-statistic exceeds the upper critical values at conventional significance levels, affirming that  
the long-run cointegration is robust to alternative lag structures and critical value assumptions.  
Overall, these checks indicate that the key findings, particularly the differential short-run and long-run effects  
of education and health expenditure and the moderating role of institutional quality are robust across diagnostic  
and specification conditions.  
Table 4.6: Selected Diagnostic Tests  
Test  
Statistic  
Prob  
Heteroskedasticity (F-test)  
1.353  
0.241  
Serial Correlation (LM test)  
1.120  
0.301  
Source: Authors’ computation (2025)  
Page 1197  
www.rsisinternational.org  
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN SOCIAL SCIENCE (IJRISS)  
ISSN No. 2454-6186 | DOI: 10.47772/IJRISS | Volume IX Issue XII December 2025  
Figure 2: Normality Test  
Series: Residuals  
Sample 2000Q1 2023Q3  
Observations 45  
14  
12  
10  
8
Mean  
Median  
-1.18e-14  
-0.018657  
Maximum 0.335929  
Minimum  
Std. Dev.  
Skewness  
Kurtosis  
-0.260653  
0.125067  
0.343405  
3.609639  
6
Jarque-Bera  
Probability  
1.511035  
0.469767  
4
2
0
-0.3  
-0.2  
-0.1  
0.0  
0.1  
0.2  
0.3  
CONCLUSION, IMPLICATIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS  
Conclusion  
This study examined the relationship between public social expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria, with  
particular emphasis on education and health spending, human capital development, and the moderating role of  
institutional quality. Using an ARDL–ECM framework and annual data spanning 2000–2023, the findings  
confirm the existence of a stable long-run relationship among the variables.  
The results reveal important asymmetries between short-run and long-run effects. Education expenditure exerts  
a negative but significant effect on economic growth in the short run, reflecting adjustment costs and gestation  
lags, but becomes growth-enhancing in the long run. This underscores the role of sustained investment in  
education in promoting human capital accumulation and long-term productivity. Health expenditure, by  
contrast, contributes positively to economic growth in the short run but shows no statistically significant long-  
run effect, suggesting that its growth impact is contingent on spending efficiency and institutional  
effectiveness.  
Importantly, institutional quality does not directly drive growth but significantly moderates the effectiveness of  
social expenditure. Weak institutional capacity diminishes the growth returns of education and health spending,  
while trade openness supports growth in both the short and long run. Overall, the findings suggest that public  
social expenditure promotes economic growth in Nigeria primarily when supported by strong institutions and  
efficient resource utilization.  
Implications and Policy Recommendations  
The findings carry important policy implications for Nigeria’s development strategy. First, the long-run growth  
enhancing role of education expenditure implies that government investment in education should be sustained  
and strategically targeted toward improving access, quality, and outcomes rather than merely expanding  
budgetary allocations. Policies should prioritize teacher training, curriculum relevance, educational  
infrastructure, and research and innovation to ensure that education spending translates into productive human  
capital.  
Second, the short-run effectiveness but long-run insignificance of health expenditure highlights the need to  
improve efficiency, accountability, and governance within the health sector. Strengthening health  
infrastructure, reducing leakages in recurrent spending, and expanding public–private partnerships can enhance  
the long-term growth impact of health investments.  
Third, the moderating role of institutional quality underscores the urgency of governance reforms. Enhancing  
transparency, strengthening public financial management systems, and improving regulatory effectiveness are  
critical to maximizing the productivity of social expenditure. Without such reforms, increases in education and  
health spending may yield diminishing or unsustainable growth returns.  
Page 1198  
www.rsisinternational.org  
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN SOCIAL SCIENCE (IJRISS)  
ISSN No. 2454-6186 | DOI: 10.47772/IJRISS | Volume IX Issue XII December 2025  
Finally, the negative long-run effect of infrastructure investment suggests the need for improved project  
selection, monitoring, and maintenance frameworks to prevent misallocation of resources. Complementary  
policies that promote trade openness and institutional reform will further enhance the growth benefits of social  
spending.  
In sum, achieving sustainable and inclusive economic growth in Nigeria requires not only increased investment  
in education and health but also strong institutions, efficient expenditure management, and outcome-oriented  
policy design.  
REFERENCES  
1. Abasilim, U. D., & Onyekwuo-Oparah, A. C. (2025). Human Capital Development and Poverty  
Reduction in Nigeria: Investigating the Nexus. Jurnal Ilmiah Administrasi Publik dan Pemerintahan  
(JIAPP), 4(2), 153-163.  
2. Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J. A. (2005). Institutions as the fundamental cause of long-run  
growth. In P. Aghion & S. Durlauf (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth (Vol. 1A, pp. 385–472).  
Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0684(05)01006-3  
3. Adebayo, T. S., & Olanrewaju, V. O. (2024). How effective are trade policy and monetary policy in  
achieving a pathway to sustainable development? Evidence from a wavelet quantile‐on‐quantile Granger  
causality analysis. Sustainable Development.  
4. Aghion, P., & Howitt, P. (2009). The economics of growth. MIT Press Cambridge.  
5. Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. The Quarterly Journal of  
Economics, 106(2), 407–443. https://doi.org/10.2307/2937943  
6. Barro, R. J., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (2004). Economic growth (2nd ed.). MIT Press, Cambridge.  
7. Becker, G. S. (1993). Human capital: A theoretical and empirical analysis, with special reference to  
education  
(3rd  
ed.).  
University  
of  
Chicago  
Press.  
http://dx.doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226041223.001.0001  
8. Bloom, D. E., & Canning, D. (2000). The health and wealth of nations. Science, 287(5456), 1207–1209.  
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.287.5456.1207  
9. Christopher, N., Michael S. Akpan, & Sunday Emmanuel Ologunla. (2025). Impact of government  
spending in education and health sectors on Nigeria’s economic growth: a time series analysis of capital  
and recurrent expenditures. Journal of Social Sciences and Management Studies, 4(1), 24–39.  
https://doi.org/10.56556/jssms.v4i1.1119  
10. Grossman, M. (1972). On the concept of health capital and the demand for health. Journal of Political  
Economy, 80(2), 223–255. https://doi.org/10.1086/259880  
11. Gupta, S., Davoodi, H., & Tiongson, E. (2001). Corruption and the provision of health care and  
education services. In The political economy of corruption (pp. 123-153). Routledge.  
12. Haller, A. P. (2012). Concepts of Economic Growth and Development. Challenges of Crisis and of  
Knowledge. Economy Transdisciplinarity Cognition, 15(1).  
13. Hirschman, A. O. (1958). The Strategy of Economic Development. Yale University Press.  
14. Ideh, A. N., Nenbee, S. G., & Vite, B. N. (2022). Public Healthcare expenditure, population growth and  
economic development in Nigeria. International Journal of Public Health, Pharmacy and Pharmacology,  
7(3), 1-13.  
15. Jhingan, M. L. (2011). The economics of development and planning. Mayur Vihar, Delhi: Vrinda  
Publications (P) Ltd.  
16. Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2010). The worldwide governance indicators: Methodology  
and analytical issues. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5430. World Bank.  
https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-5430  
17. Kruk, M. E., Gage, A. D., Arsenault, C., Jordan, K., Leslie, H. H., Roder-DeWan, S., Adeyi, O., Barker,  
P., Daelmans, B., Doubova, S. V., English, M., El-Jardali, F., Pate, M., & others. (2018). High-quality  
health systems in the Sustainable Development Goals era: Time for a revolution. The Lancet Global  
Health, 6(11), e1196–e1252. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30386-3  
18. Le, T. H., Kim, J., & Lee, M. (2016). Institutional quality, trade openness, and financial sector  
development in Asia: An empirical investigation. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 52(5), 104uti7-  
1059.  
Page 1199  
www.rsisinternational.org  
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN SOCIAL SCIENCE (IJRISS)  
ISSN No. 2454-6186 | DOI: 10.47772/IJRISS | Volume IX Issue XII December 2025  
19. Lewis, W.A. (1954) Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour. The Manchester School  
of Economic and Social, 22, 139-191.  
20. Mauro, P. (1998). Corruption and the composition of government expenditure. Journal of Public  
Economics, 69(2), 263–279. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0047-2727(98)00025-5  
21. Mian, L. (2023). The role of education in promoting social mobility. Sociology and Criminology, 11(2),  
1-2.  
22. North, D. C. (1990). Institutions, institutional change and economic performance. Cambridge University  
Press.  
23. OECD. (2019). Education at a glance 2019: OECD indicators. OECD Publishing.  
https://doi.org/10.1787/f8d7880d-en  
24. Okerekeoti, C. U. (2022). Government expenditure on education and economic growth in Nigeria.  
International Journal of Recent Research in Commerce Economics and Management (IJRRCEM), 9(2),  
126-134.  
25. Okoro, A. S. (2013). Government spending and economic growth in Nigeria (1980-2011). Global Journal  
of Management and Business Research Economics and Commerce, 13(5), 21-29.  
26. Olanrewaju, G. O., Tella, S. A., & Adesoye, B. A. (2019). Institutional quality, financial inclusion and  
inclusive growth: Causality evidence from Nigeria. Economic and Financial Review, 57(3), 3.  
27. Olayiwola, S. O., Bakare-Aremu, T. A., & Abiodun, S. O. (2021). Public health expenditure and  
economic growth in Nigeria: Testing of Wagner's Hypothesis. African Journal of Economic Review, 9(2),  
130-150.  
28. Olopade, B. C. (2020). Government expenditure, human capital and poverty reduction: A comparative  
study of Nigeria and Saudi Arabia (Doctoral dissertation, PhD Thesis, Covenant University).  
29. Ozor, R. I., Ahamba, K. O., Ogwuru, H. O. R., Okeke, A. C., Onwuka, C. O., Nwedu, O. N., & Nwiboko,  
I. U. (2025, July). Healthcare expenditure and economic growth nexus in Nigeria: Impact and causality  
analyses. Journal  
of  
Economics,  
Finance  
and  
Management  
Studies, *8*(7),  
4601–  
4616. https://doi.org/10.47191/jefms/v8-i7-49  
30. Rajkumar, A. S., & Swaroop, V. (2008). Public spending and outcomes: Does governance matter?  
Journal of Development Economics, 86(1), 96–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2007.08.003  
31. Rodrik, D. (2000). Institutions for high-quality growth: What they are and how to acquire them. Studies  
in Comparative International Development, 35(3), 3–31. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02699764  
32. Rodrik, D. (2013). Unconditional convergence in manufacturing. The quarterly journal of economics,  
128(1), 165-204.  
33. Sarwar, S., Alsaggaf, M. I., & Tingqiu, C. (2019). Nexus among economic growth, education, health, and  
environment: dynamic analysis of world-level data. Frontiers in public health, 7, 307.  
34. Sunde, U., & Vischer, T. (2015). Human capital and growth: Specification matters. Economica, 82(326),  
368-390.  
35. Todaro, M. P., & Smith, S. C. (2015). Economic development (12th ed.). Pearson Education.  
36. Udo, A. B., Akpan, B. L., & Nsor, O. N. (2023). The developmental implications of Nigeria’s public  
spendings: an ARDL analysis [Preprint]. Research Square. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2611714/v1  
37. UNESCO. (2020). Global education monitoring report 2020: Inclusion and education – All means all.  
UNESCO Publishing. https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000373724  
38. Verazulianti, V., Dawood, T. C., & Zulham, T. How Important Are Health and Education in Boosting  
Subnational Economic Growth?. Journal of Socioeconomics and Development, 4(1), 33-45.  
39. Weisbrod, B. A. (1966). Investing in human capital. The Journal of Human Resources, 1(1), 5-21.  
40. World Bank. (2017). World development report 2017: Governance and the law. World Bank.  
https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0950-7  
41. World Health Organization. (2019). Global spending on health: A world in transition. World Health  
Organization. https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/330357  
Page 1200  
www.rsisinternational.org